Markets continue to impress

Here's what we're thinking

December 8, 2016

Market performance has continued to impress since the November 8th U.S. election with solid gains in major equity and commodity indices while the U.S. dollar and bond yields have continued to move higher in convincing fashion. This has suited our portfolio strategy quite well, stretching back to our adoption of a pro‐cyclical bias from early this year. To be sure several upcoming risk events could lead to occasional market setbacks following the large moves markets have witnessed in such a short period of time. These include the Italian constitutional referendum (Dec. 4), ECB (Dec. 8), Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (Dec. 14), and the inauguration of the U.S. President‐elect (Jan. 20). Beyond the short‐term headline‐driven noise, we remain focussed on our view that the next recession is likely a couple of years away and thus stick to our portfolio strategy of Overweighting Equities favouring cyclical sectors which include energy, materials, financials, industrials, and small‐caps. We continue to deploy our modest cash allocation into equities, taking our Canadian equities allocation to overweight which leaves us overweight North America versus the rest of the world.

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