Markets react to Trump win

Here's what we're thinking

November 9, 2016

Defying expectations, the American people elected Donald Trump as the next President of the United States while keeping both the Senate and House of Representatives in the hands of the Republicans. Markets reacted in sharp fashion to this unexpected result but within hours retraced most of their losses as calm settled in during the first full day of trading. The policy leanings of the president-elect and the degree to which they materialize in his administration will have a wide ranging impact across asset classes, markets and sectors over the medium-term. Our long-held investment strategy of remaining Overweight Equities / Underweight Fixed Income with a bias towards cyclical sectors continues to perform well. In particular, the possibility of a stimulative fiscal policy stance, improving near-term growth outlook and maintenance of Fed rate hikes over the coming year should continue to support cyclical/value segments (energy, financials, credit, commodities, etc.). However, our enthusiasm for international and emerging market assets has waned in light of protectionist trade risks looking ahead to next year.