Due diligence is critical to Mailey Rogers Group’s investment strategy, and plays an important role in our commitment to client service. We’ve written about this topic before, and continue to seek out opportunities to speak with key players in the investment industry. Last week was no different, and we are pleased to offer our clients the following update.
On September 12, Brie Fraser and I had a fantastic working lunch with Dr. Stephen Wood, Chief Market Strategist at Russell Investments. Dr. Wood, who is based in New York City, is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg TV and PBS, and is often quoted in national publications such as the Wall Street Journal and International Herald Tribune.
He spoke to us about his views on the overall economy, capital markets, portfolio strategies and investor behavior. Here were a few of our key takeaways from Dr. Wood:
- The earliest you will see a recession in the U.S. is early 2019.
- The U.S. market is fully (not over) valued and he is recommending shifting some U.S. equity exposure to Europe and even the emerging markets.
- Europe is not synchronized with the U.S. economic cycle and as the U.S. perhaps turns down in 2019, the European growth engine will provide strength to global portfolios. Additionally, China is likely to experience economic growth in the 6% range and this will provide further growth opportunities to globally diversified portfolios.
- The U.S. is not likely to increase interest rates significantly but rather continue to deleverage their balance sheet by reducing their bond holdings.
- Oil is likely range bound between $45 and $55 dollars. He feels it is very unlikely that we will see prices above $60 for a very long time.
- He believes that the Canadian Dollar will settle into the $0.75 range versus the U.S. Dollar.
Brie and I are continually meeting with thought leaders to ensure we are providing our clients with objective guidance from many sources. We enjoyed this informative and engaging discussion with Dr. Wood, and are thankful for the direct access opportunity to this thought leader that Russell Investments provided us with. If you have any questions about your investments or the points raised here, please contact our team – we’d be pleased to hear from you.