Synchronized global upturn reinforces bullish fundamentals

Here's what we're thinking

October 24, 2017

Global markets have continued to grind higher in recent weeks despite volatile headlines thanks largely to supportive medium-term market fundamentals. In particular, economic growth across major economies is hitting 7-year highs while the recovery has broadened out into a global synchronized upturn for the first time since the 2008/09 financial crisis. We expect this to continue into 2018 as well with unemployment rates remaining low and central banks keeping monetary conditions at stimulative levels despite some very modest interest rate hikes. Most of our indicators point to ongoing economic recovery with the earliest start to a recession pointing to 2019 with many indicators suggesting this may not start until 2020. Thus, there remains ample time left in the current equity bull market to view any near-term pullback (5%-10%) in stock markets as an attractive opportunity to put cash to work. We believe investments closely correlated with economic growth trends (cyclical assets) should outperform given our constructive global macro-economic outlook.